He also said "Chinese belligerence is evident in its continuing propensity to project power outside its region", in turn presenting a "threat to the rules-based international order".
A yellow glow is likely to stand out amid grey geopolitical clouds in 2023, with gold price projected to touch Rs 60,000 per 10 grams in the Indian market as more investors veer towards safe-haven assets. In a year where volatility was more a norm than an exception, gold prices in the international market oscillated from a peak of $2,070 per ounce in March to a low of $1,616 per ounce in November and is steadily recovering since then, according to market experts. At the beginning of 2022, gold prices were around $1,800 an ounce.
China has signalled that it will prevent India from assuming leadership of the Global South, observes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a pitch for electing a strong and stable government in an uncertain world beset by geopolitical tensions as the Bharatiya Janata Party on Sunday released its manifesto, prioritising development and welfare while shunning populist measures and contentious issues like the National Register of Citizens (NRC).
'I certainly think India can play a leading role in helping us resolve the Russia-Ukraine crisis. India obviously has an old relationship with Russia'
The biggest question looming over the summit is whether there will be a joint leaders' declaration in view of the sharp differences between the West and the Russia-China combine on the text to describe the Ukraine conflict in the document.
The Indian rupee may remain under depreciation pressure on account of plateauing of exports and subsequent widening of the current account deficit, said the Economic Survey 2022-23 tabled in Parliament on Tuesday. It said the "risks to the current account balance stem from multiple sources". The country's current account deficit (CAD) widened to 4.4 per cent of the GDP in the quarter ended September from 2.2 per cent in April-June due to higher trade gap, as per latest data of the Reserve Bank of India.
On the Ukraine conflict, Modi said, "Some people say that we are neutral. But we are not neutral. We are on the side of peace." "All countries should respect international law and the sovereignty of countries," he said.
The cost of living crisis is the biggest short-term risk the world is facing, while the failure of climate mitigation and climate adaptation is the largest long-term concern, the World Economic Forum said on Wednesday. Releasing its annual Global Risks report in London ahead of its Davos summit next week, the WEF also said geopolitical rivalries and inward-looking stances will heighten economic constraints and further exacerbate both short- and long-term risks. The Global Risks 2023 report, drawing on views of over 1,200 experts, policy-makers and industry leaders from across the world, also urged countries to work together to avoid 'resource rivalries'.
'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
'The global situation is not very good.'
India's voting pattern in the United Nations with regard to the Israel-Palestine conflict is lately marked by a calibrated distancing from Israel, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
"We work with other countries to develop their capabilities and support their efforts to make free sovereign choices. More broadly, we aim to advance peace and stability in the region," he asserted.
India on Saturday pulled off a big diplomatic win after the G20 summit held under its presidency adopted a consensus declaration overcoming major differences on the Russia-Ukraine war, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for ending the "global trust deficit".
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd on Friday reported a 46 per cent jump in net profit for the three months ended June on the back of bumper earnings from oil and telecom businesses. The oil-to-retail-to-telecom conglomerate's consolidated net profit rose to Rs 17,955 crore during April-June period -- the first quarter of 2022-23 fiscal year -- from Rs 12,273 crore in the year-ago period, it said a stock exchange filing.
The Indian Navy, which regards itself as the 'net security provider' in the Indian Ocean Region, has also stepped up to the plate, with a warship stationed at all times off the Gulf of Aden for counter-piracy tasks. 91 Indian warships have been deployed in the region since 2008, patrolling high risk areas where piracy was rampant.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday made a fresh push for reforms in global institutions, including the United Nations, asserting that the world's 'new realities' should be reflected in 'new global structure' as it is nature's law that those who don't change with times lose their relevance.
The silver lining for India's presidency is likely to be the support by almost all G20 countries to its proposal to include the African Union as a permanent member of the bloc that has emerged as perhaps the most influential multilateral forum after the United Nations.
The current geopolitical situation necessitates the Indian Air Force to prepare for intense and small duration operations at a short notice, Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari said on Thursday.
Russia on Monday accused the US of "actively" exploiting the "contradictions" between India and China to its advantage and asserted Moscow and New Delhi accumulated mutual trust and confidence based on decades-old ties that would help the two sides to deal with the current geopolitical turbulence.
Union minister Smriti Irani reacted furiously to the Congress leader's barb at the prime minister over the Rafale purchase and the tense situation in Manipur.
After the first quarter was washed out, exporters are now keeping their fingers crossed over a turnaround in outbound shipments to at least North America from September onwards. This comes even as other key destinations such as Europe may take longer to revive in FY24. Slowdown in key economies, as well as geopolitical tensions resulted in sluggish demand for Indian goods.
The Indian position on the Russia-Ukraine war and the unconditional treaty between China and Russia appear to have caused some ripples in India-US relations and led to a reappraisal of India's usefulness to the US in the eventuality of a conflict with China, notes Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
'The United States should not, by this logic, expect India to create military distractions along the Line of Actual Control, hold up Chinese shipping in the Indian Ocean, or even openly provide intelligence or basing for US forces transiting the region.'
India appears poised to sustain its growth in a more durable way than before with the economy carrying the momentum from FY23 into the current fiscal year, the Annual Economic Review for 2022-23 released by the finance ministry on Thursday said. However, the report cautioned that escalation of geopolitical stress, enhanced volatility in global financial systems, sharp price correction in global stock markets, a high magnitude of El-Nino impact, and modest trade activity and FDI inflows, are factors that could constrain the pace of growth. "Should these developments deepen and dampen growth in the subsequent quarters, the external sector may challenge India's growth outlook for FY24," the finance ministry said.
With no major domestic market moving triggers this week, equities would continue to look at global factors, foreign fund movement and trend in the rupee for further direction, analysts said. "This week we have the August month F&O expiry where bulls are looking for rest after a gain in the August series," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. "There are not a lot of triggers but global cues, August month F&O expiry, and FIIs' behaviour will be important factors in the direction of the market," he noted.
'Earning expectations remain strong.'
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday started discussions to firm up the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations that it might retain status quo on interest rate but change its monetary policy stance amid rising inflation on account of geopolitical developments.
The resolution proposed by Russia that called for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza but made no mention of Hamas' attack on Israel.
The unalloyed truth about the Ukraine-Russia conflict is that it is a war that Russia cannot lose and Ukraine cannot win, observes Colonel Anil Athale (retd).
The G20 declaration, which hit snags on the language to describe the Ukraine war, amounted to a 'coup' for host Prime Minister Narendra Modi though the final compromise statement reflected a stand far softer than those the United States and its Western allies have adopted on Russia, the world media said on Sunday.
It is for China to decide what role it plays at the G20 summit in New Delhi, a top US official has said, asserting that if Beijing wants to come in and be a "spoiler", that option is available to it.
Investor wealth worth over Rs 13.44 lakh crore was wiped off on Thursday as the domestic equity markets tumbled along with global risk assets, after Russia launched military operations against Ukraine. Amid intensifying rout in the global financial markets, the 30-share BSE Sensex plummeted 2,702.15 points or 4.72 per cent to end at 54,529.91. The carnage on Dalal Street eroded investor wealth worth Rs 13,44,488.54 crore, taking the total market capitalisation (m-cap) to Rs 2,42,24,179.79 crore on the BSE.
"The basic idea is that India would like to continue to be the most beautiful woman wooed by all men, notably the two strongest in the house, US and China," the article titled 'Indo-US strategic distrust stalls LSA signing'.
The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 54.9 in February, up from 54.0 in January, signalling a stronger improvement in the sector's health. The February PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the eighth straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
In his opening remarks at the G20 Leaders' Summit at the Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi, Modi said the 21st century is a time of giving new direction to the world.
After withdrawing record funds in 2021-22, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continued their sell-off in the last fiscal too and pulled out Rs 37,631 crore from Indian equities amid aggressive rate hikes by central banks globally. The outflow trend is likely to reverse in the current financial year since India has the best growth potential in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24), VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Market analysts believe that FPI flows in the current financial year would be decided by a host of factors, such as the US Federal Reserve's policy stance, oil prices movement and development in the geopolitical situation.
India is one of the few countries in the region that enjoys good relations with both Israel and Saudi Arabia, and IMEC would allow it to recreate the old Spice Route to Europe. All this is in jeopardy now, notes Rajeev Srinivasan.
The rupee plunged 58 paise to close at an all-time low of 81.67 (provisional) against the US dollar on Monday as the strengthening of the American currency overseas and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, escalation of geopolitical risks due to conflict in Ukraine, a negative trend in domestic equities and significant foreign fund outflows sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 81.47, then fell further to close at an all-time low of 81.67 against the American currency, registering a decline of 58 paise over its previous close.
From the 30-share pack, Indusind Bank, Axis Bank, Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, UltraTech Cement and Mahindra & Mahindra were the biggest drags, tumbling up to 7.63 per cent.
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